Development Status and Suggestions of my country's Solar Power Generation Industry

In 2021, the annual increase of distributed photovoltaic capacity will be about 29 million kilowatts, which will exceed 50% of the newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity for the first time in history, accounting for about 55%. At the same time, among the newly added distributed photovoltaics, the annual newly installed capacity of household photovoltaics will exceed 20 million kilowatts for the first time in 2021 after exceeding 10 million kilowatts for the first time in 2020, reaching about 21.5 million kilowatts, showing a strong development momentum.

With the successive start of the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects, the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in my country is expected to continue to increase. Among them, in October 2021, Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, and Jilin Province respectively held project launching ceremonies, and a total of 1.01 million kilowatts of solar thermal power generation projects are expected to be completed and connected to the grid by the end of 2023.

In 2021, the efficiency of crystalline silicon cell laboratories of photovoltaic power generation industry enterprises and research institutions will break records 11 times, promote the rapid improvement of key indicators in each link, and further widen the gap between leading enterprises and medium-sized enterprises.

In 2022, my country's solar power industry will face both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the development of my country's solar energy, especially the photovoltaic power generation industry, will receive stable policy support and drive the overall improvement and upgrading of the industrial chain. On the other hand, the large-scale development of new energy requires the support of a new power system, and the policy system and terminal application model urgently need to be reformed.

1. Overview of the development of the solar power generation industry

In 2021, my country's solar power generation industry will still maintain an upward breakthrough attitude. Among them, the annual newly installed capacity of the photovoltaic power generation industry has reached the highest level in history again, and the proportion of the newly added annual scale of distributed photovoltaics has exceeded 50% for the first time, and the industry continues to maintain a strong growth trend; Xinneng's 50MW CSP project was put into operation during the year, adding new recruits to the commercialization of CSP in my country. Both sub-sectors have submitted an annual report card that satisfies the market.

(1) The photovoltaic industry continues to make breakthroughs, and the development momentum of household photovoltaics is strong

In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country's photovoltaic power generation construction achieved new breakthroughs, with an annual installed capacity of 54.88 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The kilowatt mark reached 306 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years.

The development trend of both centralized and distributed development is more obvious. In 2021, the annual increase of distributed photovoltaic capacity will be about 29 million kilowatts, which will exceed 50% of the newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity for the first time in history, accounting for about 55%. At the same time, among the newly added distributed photovoltaics, the annual newly installed capacity of household photovoltaics will exceed 20 million kilowatts for the first time in 2021, after exceeding 10 million kilowatts for the first time in 2020, reaching about 21.5 million kilowatts, showing a strong development momentum.

The level of consumption and utilization continued to improve. In 2021, the national photovoltaic power generation will be 325.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, accounting for 4.0% of the country's total annual power generation; utilization hours will be 1,163 hours, a year-on-year increase of 3 hours; the national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate is 98%, compared with the previous year. Flat. The level of photovoltaic consumption in Xinjiang and Tibet has increased significantly, and the photovoltaic utilization rate has increased by 2.8 and 5.6 percentage points respectively year-on-year.

(2) Steady progress in solar thermal power generation, the industry ushered in new opportunities for development

At the end of 2021, the Yumen Xinneng 50MW solar thermal project will be fully put into operation, adding another member to the list of solar thermal power generation projects in my country, and the cumulative installed capacity continues to rise.

By the end of 2020, 8 solar thermal power plants have been connected to the grid in China, including 7 solar thermal power generation demonstration projects including the 50MW trough project of CGN Delingha that have been connected to the grid before the end of 2020, and the Luneng Golmud multi-energy complementary 50MW tower project (National Energy Bureau Multi-Energy Complementary Demonstration Project). Through commissioning and continuous elimination of shortages, the performance and power generation of these solar thermal power generation demonstration projects have been gradually improved.

Among them, as the first large-scale commercial solar thermal demonstration power station in China, the CGN Delingha 50MW trough power station has achieved a record of 107 days of continuous operation and is in a leading position in the world. The power generation of Shouhang Hi-Tech Dunhuang 100MW molten salt tower solar thermal demonstration power station increased by 31.3% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with 2019, and increased again by 39.7% in the third quarter of 2021. At present, various performance indicators of the power station are still greatly improved. Qinghai SUPCON Delingha 50MW solar thermal power station started from October 2019. Except for some months when the steam turbine failed, the actual power generation of the power station reached or exceeded the design value in most months.

In the next stage, with the start of the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects, the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in my country is expected to continue to increase. In October 2021, Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, and Jilin Province held project launching ceremonies respectively. The solar thermal power generation project with a total of 1.01 million kilowatts is expected to be completed and connected to the grid by the end of 2023.

2. Technological innovation in the solar power generation industry continues to move forward

Continuous technological innovation is the key to the rapid development of my country's solar power generation industry, especially the photovoltaic power generation industry. In 2021, the photovoltaic power generation industry will continue to make breakthroughs in the industry's cutting-edge technologies, and the solar thermal power generation industry will focus on the shortcomings of industry development and concentrate efforts, all of which have achieved good results.

(1) The level of key indicators in each link of photovoltaic manufacturing has increased rapidly

In 2021, the efficiency of crystalline silicon cell laboratories of photovoltaic power generation industry enterprises and research institutions will break records 11 times, and promote the rapid improvement of key indicators in each link.

In the polysilicon segment, thanks to factors such as the improvement of production equipment technology, the improvement of system optimization capabilities, and the increase in production scale, the average comprehensive power consumption of polysilicon decreased by 5.3% compared with 2020, and the comprehensive energy consumption decreased by 17.4% year-on-year. Flat, these indicators have room to continue to test.

In the silicon wafer segment, the downstream demand for monocrystalline products continues to increase. At present, the market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers (P-type + N-type) is about 94.5%, and the market share of large-sized silicon wafers of 182mm and 210mm is rapidly expanding.

In the cell segment, the new mass production line in 2021 will still be dominated by PERC cell production lines, and its market share will increase to 91.2%. With the increasing demand for high-efficiency products in the global market, as well as the reduction of production costs and the improvement of yield rate of cell companies, the market share of conventional cells (BSF cells) will drop to 5% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8 percentage points.

In the module segment, as bifacial power generation modules are increasingly recognized by the market and the U.S. policy of exempting bifacial power generation modules from 201 tariffs, the market share of bifacial modules increased by 7.7 percentage points year-on-year to 37.4%, and is expected to reach 37.4% in 2023. Years split the market equally with single-sided components.

(2) Technology research and development projects in the solar thermal industry are accelerating

In 2021, my country will launch a number of technology research and development projects for key areas and key technologies in the development of the solar thermal power generation industry, which is of great significance for promoting the development of the solar thermal power generation industry.

For example, the "Broadband Planar Metasurface Solar Concentrator and Its Heat Collecting System" project led by Wuhan University of Technology focuses on the design method and manufacturing technology of a broadband wide-angle planar metasurface solar concentrator and its heat collecting system. In order to reduce the cost of solar thermal power generation caused by the need for high-precision brackets and complex sun tracking devices for the current general curved concentrator The project, aiming at the sustainable development needs of low-cost and high-efficiency power generation in the solar thermal power generation industry, takes the high temperature-resistant chloride mixed molten salt special metal material and its manufacturing technology in the next-generation low-cost and high-efficiency supercritical carbon dioxide solar thermal power generation system as the research object, and strives to achieve high Development and application demonstration of performance stainless steel and superalloy products.

3. The development of the solar power generation industry chain is more advanced and perfect

As a "rising star" in the energy industry, my country's solar power generation industry aims at the key links of the industry's development, and continues to enhance technological innovation and independent development.

(1) Photovoltaic power generation: the manufacturing side has achieved rapid growth

In 2021, the total annual output value of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules in the manufacturing end of my country's photovoltaic power generation industry will exceed 750 billion yuan. achieve rapid growth.

Capacity continues to grow. In 2021, the annual output of polysilicon in my country will increase by 28.8% year-on-year to 505,000 tons, ranking first in the world for 11 consecutive years; the annual output of silicon wafers will increase by 40.7% year-on-year to 227 million kilowatts; the annual output of battery cells will increase by 46.9% year-on-year, reaching 19,800 The annual output of modules increased by 46.1% year-on-year to 182 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world for 15 consecutive years.

The cost reduction and efficiency increase were further promoted. In 2021, the average comprehensive power consumption of polysilicon will decrease by 5.3% year-on-year, silicon wafers will continue to be large-sized and thinned, the mass production line of N-type cells will be deployed, and the average conversion efficiency of large-scale production of P-type PERC cells will increase by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The maximum power of the company has been increased from 600 watts in 2020 to 700 watts, and the gap between leading enterprises and medium-sized enterprises has further widened.

Industrial concentration was further improved. Leading enterprises in all aspects of the manufacturing sector have accelerated production expansion, and the production capacity of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules has continued to gather among the top five enterprises in the industry (hereinafter referred to as "top 5"). The data shows that in 2021, the total annual output of the top 5 of the four links will account for more than 50% of the total output, of which the total output of polysilicon top 5 enterprises will account for 86.7%, and the top 5 silicon wafer output will account for 84%. The average output of the top 5 continues to increase year-on-year. , except for the average output of polysilicon top5, which increased by 27.5% year-on-year, the growth rate of the other three links was 60% to 70%.

New areas continue to grow. In 2021, the attention of the granular silicon market will continue to rise, and the market share will increase by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 4.1%. With the improvement of the production process and the expansion of downstream applications, the market share is expected to further increase. Due to its relatively low cost and excellent optical and electrical properties, perovskite cells have triggered an investment boom in the industry and are expected to achieve rapid development.

It should be noted that in 2021, my country's photovoltaic upstream silicon material industry will see the situation of "volume and price flying together", the price of silicon material will rise sharply, and the supply of silicon material will be in short supply for a long time. Under this circumstance, many companies are planning to expand their silicon material production capacity, hoping to reduce the adverse impact of the supply and demand imbalance in the industrial chain on companies by strengthening the vertical integration layout. According to statistics, if all the announced expansion plans can be implemented, by the end of 2022, at least 3 million tons of production capacity will be released in my country's silicon material industry, which may lead to overcapacity in the silicon material industry.

(2) Solar thermal power generation: the annual production capacity of the production line can meet the installed capacity of 2 to 3 million kilowatts

According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, there will be nearly 550 enterprises and institutions engaged in solar thermal power generation related industrial chain products and services in my country. Among them, there are about 320 companies engaged in concentrating, heat absorption, heat transfer and storage systems unique to the solar thermal power generation industry, accounting for about 60% of the total number of related companies in the solar thermal power generation industry. 170.

The main feature of my country's solar thermal power generation industry chain is that it is based on ultra-clear glass, high-temperature heat absorption and heat transfer and storage materials (heat transfer oil, molten salt), thermal insulation materials and other easy-to-obtain, safe and abundant raw materials as the starting point and starting point to drive reflection. The development of core equipment in the industrial chain with independent intellectual property rights such as mirrors, heliostats, and tower heat sinks.

In recent years, my country has established several production lines for special components and equipment for solar thermal power generation, covering solar ultra-clear glass original sheets, trough glass mirrors, plane mirrors, trough vacuum heat absorbers, tracking drives, heat transfer oil, Molten salt, tower heliostats, trough collectors, etc., have the supply capacity to support the large-scale development of solar thermal power generation, and the annual supply can meet the installed capacity of 2 to 3 million kilowatts of solar thermal power generation projects.

Driven by the global solar thermal power generation market, in recent years, the manufacturing capacity of my country's industrial chain has been continuously strengthened, and the international competitiveness has been rapidly improved. Among them, the shipments of trough heat-absorbing tube manufacturers have gradually increased, and large-scale applications in global commercial trough power plants have been achieved.

It is understood that in the first batch of solar thermal power generation demonstration projects in my country, the localization rate of equipment and materials has exceeded 90%, and the reliability and advancement of technology and equipment have been effectively verified after the power station is put into operation. The Qinghai Zhongkong Delingha 50MW tower solar thermal power generation project, which was connected to the grid on December 30, 2018, has a localization rate of more than 95% of its equipment and materials.

It should be noted that after wind power and photovoltaic power generation entered the era of parity one after another, as a technology- and capital-intensive industry, the challenges facing the solar thermal power generation industry are not only technological innovation, but more importantly, reducing project construction costs and improving the cost-effectiveness of power generation. . For example, the total investment of building a 100MW tower solar thermal power station with 12-hour heat storage is between 2.5 and 3 billion yuan, of which the concentrating, heat absorption, heat storage and exchange systems account for about 77% of the cost of the entire power station. Reducing the cost of solar thermal power plants as soon as possible and improving the economics of the power plants have become the key to the successful large-scale and commercialization of the solar thermal power generation industry.

4. Development Suggestions

In 2022, my country's solar power generation industry has ushered in a rare opportunity for development and will also face huge challenges. On the one hand, under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, the development of my country's solar energy, especially the photovoltaic power generation industry, will receive stable policy support and drive the overall improvement and upgrading of the industrial chain. On the other hand, the large-scale development of new energy requires the support of a new power system, and the policy system and terminal application model urgently need to be reformed.

(1) Cost reduction and efficiency increase are still the key words for development

In 2022, my country's main power sources have basically entered the era of parity (distributed photovoltaics can enjoy local subsidies in some areas). Standing on the same starting line, what photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation need to do is not only parity, but more cost-effective than thermal power.

At the current stage, the solar power generation industry still needs to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In particular, the solar thermal power generation industry has the advantages of energy storage, but the current construction cost is relatively high, and it does not have the conditions for large-scale development. Therefore, my country's solar power generation industry should continue to promote the reduction of infrastructure costs, installation costs, and operation and maintenance costs, improve power conversion efficiency, and increase profit margins through scale and large-scale, so as to provide more assistance for the solar power generation industry to compete for market share.

(2) Accelerate the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body

With the gradual development of the development of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases and the promotion of rooftop distributed photovoltaics throughout the county, large-scale new energy installations will be integrated into the grid for a period of time in the future. In the face of "willful" new energy installations, the stable and orderly operation of the power grid faces severe challenges.

In order to ensure the safe and stable supply of power, my country should speed up the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body. Based on the energy green revolution, from the grid structure, system operation mode, local consumption capacity, and power market system, a comprehensive reform should be initiated in the energy and power system, and a new power system that is more suitable for the development of new energy should be built to ensure people's livelihood. Electricity and social development energy demand

To lay a stable foundation for my country's energy green and low-carbon transformation and promote the high-quality development of the whole society.

(3) Taking technological innovation as the starting point to enhance the competitiveness of the global market

Mastering key technologies, key links, and the right to speak in key areas is the top priority to enhance the industry's market competitiveness. In recent years, behind the rapid development of the industry, we should also see that the world records of key indicators in the photovoltaic power generation industry have been broken frequently, and solar thermal power generation has not been able to enter the market independently due to the high cost, and the solar power generation industry is hidden under the rapid development of reef.

For a period of time in the future, my country's solar power generation industry still needs to strengthen technological innovation, accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies, and strengthen the guarantee capabilities of key links, key areas, and key products, so as to enhance the global market competitiveness of the photovoltaic power generation industry and accelerate the trend of the solar thermal power generation industry. Marketization and commercialization help the solar power generation industry to achieve development and upgrading.

(4) Improve the industrial chain and enhance the competitiveness of the industry development

The balance of supply and demand in the industrial chain is of great significance to the development of the industry. Taking the photovoltaic power generation industry as an example, in 2020, it was just "hit the waist" by photovoltaic glass, and in 2021, due to the imbalance of supply and demand of silicon material, the "quantity and price are flying together", and the imbalance of supply and demand in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has become the industry focus throughout the year. In the rapid development, how to break through the weak links of the industrial chain and improve the industrial chain has become a must-answer question before the industry achieves a leap in development.

It is an effective way to speed up the vertical integration of enterprises. In recent years, many photovoltaic companies have chosen to build a vertically integrated layout of "silicon wafer + cell + module" or "cell + module" through new expansion projects, trying their best to reduce the adverse impact of periodic supply and demand imbalances on enterprise development.

Guide the stable development of the industry with a clear industrial development plan. Relevant departments and associations should further strengthen the top-level design, sort out the regional industrial chain structure and the distribution of industrial integration carriers in a timely manner, ensure that the industry as a whole maintains supply and demand matching, let all chains and links of the industrial chain be driven together, optimize the integration of the industrial chain, and promote solar power generation. The industry is stable and far-reaching.